'Death of diesel' could weigh on EU biofuels targets
Sales of diesel cars have fallen in major car markets across Europe, data released since the New Year shows, a trend that may have to prompt a rethink on how much biodiesel will be consumed by the transport sector.
Figures released by auto manufacturing federations in France and Germany showed that in 2016 petrol cars took a large chunk of market share from diesel cars.
The falling sales of diesel come amid fears among consumers about new taxes and curbs on the use of cars that emit relatively high amounts of particulate matter such as nitrogen oxide.
In Germany, the EU’s biggest car market, the market share of diesel cars fell to 38.8% from 45.9% in 2016, according to the VDIK vehicle importers association.
Meanwhile, the share for petrol-fueled cars was 57.7% in 2017, up from 52.1% in 2016.
Diesel cars sales in Germany fell 13% to 1.34 million, while gasoline-car sales rose by 14% to nearly 2 million.
In France, diesel engine cars accounted for just 47.3% of new registrations last year, down from 52% in 2016 and well below the 75% level seen earlier this decade.
The figures echo trends in other large EU car markets such as the UK and Spain, prompting predictions from car industry experts that the ‘death of diesel’ may be looming for the industry by the end of the next decade.
“Sales of diesels [in the UK] are set to fall by up to 10% in 2018, and they could have as little as 30% of the market by 2020 – shrinking rapidly to 15% by 2025,” forecast David Bailey of Aston University, an expert on the auto industry.
City and central governments are expected to place increasing curbs on the use of the diesel cars through journey restrictions, taxes and outright bans, moves that are likely to erode the resale values of even new models that have already been bit by the emissions testing scandal.
Toyota
Toyota said this week that it would roll out petrol-electric hybrids at a faster pace and phase out diesel sales in most European countries, while other carmakers say in public that they expect sales of hydrids and fully-electric vehicles to increase sharply towards the end of this decade.
However, a survey of auto executives by KPMG released this week showed that Europe's car industry is downbeat about the potential for fully electric vehicles, even if they are increasingly switching production to make them.
“More than half (54%) of global auto executives say they believe these vehicles will fail commercially due to infrastructure challenges while 60% say excessive recharging times will do them in,” the KPMG report found, adding that the car industry appears more confident that fuel cells are the safer bet to replace the combustion engine.
A shift away from biodiesel, and from petrol in the longer term, is a trend that may soon have to be accounted for by EU governments in renewables targets and blending requirements.
If diesel sales were to collapse, the bioethanol component of overall biofuels targets may need to increase at a time when the EU is expected to cap or curb the share of crop-based products used in renewables targets.