Devil in the detail: EU-funded study cites “uncertainty” in biofuel standards

Calculating the carbon footprint of biofuels production is so complex that drawing up an emissions standard for various fuels used in the EU remains riven by uncertainty, a recent study has found.

The study, which was authored by Spain-based National Renewable Energy Center at the behest of the European Commission, found that factors related to indirect land use change (ILUC) “vary significantly across biofuel pathways, studies, or even within studies depending on the hypothesis used”.

The conclusion comes at a critical juncture for the EU’s policies on biofuels, which are up for debate by EU member states next week ahead of a crunch plenary vote in the European Parliament early next year.

The European Commission has proposed that the threshold for crop-based biofuels used in road transport should be 3.8% as part of wider renewable energy targets that will apply between 2020 and 2030.

However, the European Parliament’s ENVI Committee wants this allowance to be phased out completely, while some EU member states, such as the Visegrad Group of central European states, want the threshold to be 7%.

Biofuels, especially those based on crops, are blamed for driving up food prices and a major source of climate change in their own right.

Palm oil produced from plantations on deforested land in South-East Asia is estimated to be one of the most carbon intensive and unsuitable sources of biofuels used in transport and heating in the EU, according to environmental groups.

But other crop-based biofuels have invoked the ire of MEPs and green lobbyists.

That controversy makes estimates and emissions factors for various fuels hugely important in the EU’s considerations, and the European Parliament and Council in 2015 mandated that the EC request a detailed independent study on the matter, a contract won by CENER in a tender.

CENER said as a consequence of all the uncertainties in the components of ILUC emissions, “it is very difficult to narrow them down”.      

CENER also concluded that there is scarce information available about the consequences of non-RED EU policies on ILUC GHG emissions, although it did find that Low ILUC-risk feedstocks, especially residues from forestry or agriculture, “may be relatively promising”.

The Spain-based researchers also found that “certification of low ILUC-risk biofuels might need additional measures.”

Despite the huge complexity of calculating lifecycle emissions from various types of biofuels, other reports on the subject have helped inform policymaking at EU level.

A 2016 report by GLOBIOM authored for the European Commission attempted to calculate land-use change emissions resulting from additional demand for biofuels in Europe, although it did not assess what the overall impact of biofuels compared with fossil fuels.