[RE]fuel Market Report Commentary

Conflicting forces conspired to keep RTFC values in check Friday, with any interest focused on Year 10 certificates as Year 11 continues to await action from the UK government.

Although the country is facing a fresh bout of cold weather in the week ahead, road fuels are set to emerge from their cold weather properties into the summer specifications, with diesel poised to relax its cold filter plug points from mid-March.

That should take the edge off some of the cold-weather preference to blend and bolster demand for certificates, but with energy prices pushing up through the week and biodiesel premiums coming under pressure, the conflicting forces left values unchanged.

“It’s sat at 15 p versus 16 p all week,” one market source said of the bid/offer range for Year 10, capping any movement and with little in the way of trading heard during the week.

Theoretical values tightened in line with the lower biodiesel premiums, which limited the potential scope for upward movement even without full-blooded trading activity.

Year 10 certificates were assessed at 15.3 p, with Year 11 at 16 p, although one market source maintained that parity between the two certificates remained plausible, although spread indications suggested a higher value.

On the legislative front, the RTFO changes have their day in the sun on Monday, February 23 according to the government’s schedule, as the rebooted RTFO finally enters the first stage of a fast track launch process.